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Syria, is the conflict a divine message for the Middle East?

7 Dec

The Middle East (ME) a region full of misunderstandings-based conflicts; a hub in world instabilities. The United States misunderstanding of the region is of much like that of the British nation even when much of the area was under its control.
Most of ME conflicts had their roots in it oil richness, that reason is closely followed by religious.
The oil issue is easily understandable, oil means energy, and energy is what fuels the economies of civilization.
The religious issues have several different causes. The most recent and most visible to the international community is that of Islamic nations against Israel. The Islam conflict with Israel is quite young in historical terms, even though the issue between Jew and Muslims has its roots in the Quran, and is therefore as old as that book, or about 1400 years. The Quran consider Jews: “Of apes and swines, to be despised and rejected (5:60).” The book refers to Jews “as people of the book,” is suggests that Allah wished for them to be “his” people and that because they rejected him, they must be either converted, or otherwise destroyed. Present day extension of the conflict has two distinct phases. At the late nineteen hundreds, Jews started to move into Palestine, the Arabs in the country rejected that move thus started to conflict. Much of Palestinian Arab leadership even sided with Hitler; it so much hated the Jews.
The second, and present phase started in 1948 with the establishment of the State OF Israel.
The other major conflict, much larger in scope, and one that spans the globe is an internal conflict within Islam. Islam has two major segments, Sunni (80%) and Shiite (20%) there are also subsets of the two major unites, Alawit (Assad’s religious affiliation) is a sub-set of the Shiite part of Islam.
Briefly, the magnitude of the Arab Israeli conflict versus those within Islam is staggering. For example, Hafez al Assad (the father of today’s’ Syrian leader) was responsible for killing 60,000 Syrians; Bashar Assad already is responsible for well over 120,000 deaths of Syrians; in comparison, from 1989 to now, less than suicide bombers killed one thousand Israelis. These numbers are actually a case of apples and oranges since there are 7,000,000 inhabitants in Israel and there are one thousand as many Muslims in the Muslim countries that are in Israel’s neighborhood.
Let us look at the present Syrian conflict and its impact on the region. The conflict, which started nearly three years ago as a national, mostly secular conflict through a push by Syria’s intelligentsia, had a strong beginning with the element of surprise on its side. The rebels, however, in order to make their efforts a surprise, were not able to organize, or equip themselves very well since they counted on United States support to be consistent with US support of democratization in the region.
To the rebels’ surprise, under Hillary Clinton’s who considered Bashar Assad “a true reformer,” the US decided to stay on the sidelines.
Without US support for the rebels, the Syrians regime, with the help of Russia (state-of-the-art equipment and advisers,) and Iran (personnel, direct and with Hezbollah,) and equipment, was able to rebound, overcome the surprise, and delay what would have been the inevitable ouster of Assad. As the regime (Shiite based,) Syria’s Sunni brethren, mostly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states started to help the rebels, but with their helps a large element of al Qaeda also entered the fray, and a real regional religious war emerged.
What will happen after the war ends? Who is going to win?
Let us start by saying that predicting the outcome of the war is not yet possible. So let us take a quick look at the two potential scenarios, and in a little more detail at the end results, which would likely be quite similar of, regardless who wins or looses.
If the regime wins, it would likely have to do so without Assad at the head since the international community is already on record as rejecting his legitimacy. Presiding over Syria under such circumstances would be an Iranian appointed puppet, while the military would be headed by, and include a large Hezbollah contingency. It would likely have a Supreme Leader who will likely be an Ayatollah. In this scenario, Russia will remain strong influence on the country’s future.
Should the rebels win, Syria would also become a highly religious entity but under Sunni leadership. Under such circumstances the Saudis will have a great deal to say about the country leadership, its military would have a large al Qaeda element.
Whatever the outcome, United States influence would diminish!
Effects on the region, on the Middle East. Since about four million Syrians would have left Syria by the time the conflict ends, and very few will return, demographics of the region will change. Lebanon: some a million and a half, to two million Syrians, mostly Sunnis will remain in Lebanon. With Hezbollah a strong element in Lebanon, and Shiite, new religious conflicts within Lebanon, a struggle for control will ensue.
Half a million or about that many refugees in Turkey may not have a great influence on the future of that country, but as the result of the conflict and fringe events, it is very likely the a sovereign Kurdistan will emerge.
Jordan: With well over a million refugees Jordan will suffer. Since there are already more foreigners (Palestinians) in Jordan than are Jordanians, adding numerous Syrians will very likely weaken the already vulnerable monarchy, a shakedown of national control would very possibly result.
In addition to a sovereign Kurdistan one can count on the Golan Heights remaining permanent part of Israel, and so will likely be the Baaka Valley.
Since the long suffering Kurds who were deprived of their own land for a very long time are likely to get their own sovereign nation, and Israel should have enhanced security on its northern border, while the situation in Jordan should help determine the fate of the Palestinians, as a nation, or as part of a new Jordan. Could helping historically oppressed people suggest that the Syrian conflict was just another case of divine intervention?

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Several billion $$ to Iran for diversion from 24/7 coverage of Obamacare: Or, America the prostitute, selling what is right for what is expedient!

25 Nov

Several billion $$ to Iran for diversion from 24/7 coverage of Obamacare: Or, America the prostitute, selling what is right for what is expedient!

What a disgrace. Just three weeks ago, on November 4, 2013, Iran’s Supreme Commander, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared that America was the most hated country in the world! On the same day the Supreme Leader led a chant by large crowds in Tehran: “Death to America!”
In three weeks the Supreme Leader changed his view and has a good faith agreement with the same “hated” Americans; to those who accept that premise, I have a bridge in Brooklyn that I’ll sell you cheap!
The deal was brewing for several months in secret, a deal that the Obama Administration can use to further its [political] interests; a few million in relief on sanctions for a “deal” the Administration can use for various political ends, as it turned out, a G-d sent situation that would allow the Administration to divert attention away from the 24/7 media coverage of the miserably failing Obamacare, what a disgusting selling out what is right for what is expedient!

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Obama, the master of diversion; the Iran ruse, a cover-up?

24 Nov

A ruse, is a ruse, is a ruse! And the Iran agreement is just that, a ruse! Since 2012 the Obama Administration has been holding “secret” discussion with Iran preparing a “deal” that can be used when major diversion from major issues that hurt President Obama and his Administration. The ACA with its 24/7 media coverage was just such a problem.
My many years with Iran suggest that we have another ruse on our hand; this view is also consistent with the Obama’s Administration being masters of distractions, and diversions.
Most recently, when President Obama capitulated on the Syria red line and was made to look foolish by Putin who shoved him aside to take over the negotiation. The following snubs by the Iranians at the United Nation filled the news 24/7, then the Government shutdown, and the complete diversion that Obama could have stopped with a stroke of a pen. His delay of ACA now would have kept the shutdown from happening.
Now the big mess surrounding ACA has been getting 24/7 media coverage; out of the hat comes a deal with Iran…A ploy, a joke, within weeks it will be exposed for what it is, a ruse!
Notable diversion by the Obama Administration:
Benghazi, failed diversion using some obscure ant0Islm movie.
Syria’s red-line and negotiation and the snubs by Iran at the UN, the Government shut-down
Obamacare (ACA), a ruse Iran deal
What a devious Commander in Chief (C.i.C.) we have, what a divisive Government!

Of Snowden: A hero, or a Goat? Let his peers judge when all facts are in!

4 Nov

In many cases, to some a terrorist is a criminal, to others, the same person may be a freedom fighter, or a hero, if you will. There is no doubt that nations do, and must keep some state secrets, but who is to judge if said secrets are indeed justified? Who is to judge if they harm the populous?
What Snowden did might have been illegal, but Thomas Jefferson in his wisdom made it clear that challenging authority was to be a part of the Nation that he helped “shape,” and that challenges are actually to be a part of the system.
There is a very thin line between first amendments right, and criminal violation of “state secrets.” The big question, who is to draw that line? Is it the authority being challenged, or the person challenging that authority?
In the case of Snowden, more of the nature of what was leaked should be known, and then, and only then, a jury of his peer should decide if he is a hero, or a villain…

Syria’s conflict WILL end with new Middle East Geography! Emerging: Kurdistan, two Lebanons, no”Palestine:”

26 Sep

The conflict in Syria WILL end with geographic re-alignment of the region, the details are not yet relevant. For example, many the three or more million Syrian refugees will not return to Syria; where and how do they end? Kurds will insist and will likely end up with their own country (parts of Syria, Turkey, Iraq.)
There will no legitimate Syria (the US and most others will not accept Assad, Russia and Iran would not allow a Sunni sovereign, what a mess…) to hand the Golan Heights back to, it WILL thus remain Israeli territory in perpetuity.
With the wholesale re-alignment there will likely no room for new “Palestine” as a separate new country, part will likely be annexed to Jordan, part to Egypt, providing the Egypt government structure ever gets settled.
And there is Lebanon with enhanced Hezbollah influence and about a million and a half Syrian added to its highly heterogeneous population, what a challenge that will cause; perhaps a split into two countries, one Christian, the other Muslim…”
Lebanon would likely split into a muslim (to the north,) and Chriswtian (to the south, bordering with Israel,) contries, Hezbollah would likley control the Islamic client state of Iran, and Russia.
And the remaining Syria, an enigma! Will it be Sunni with significant al Qaeda, and Saudi influence, or will it become more moderate, too early to tell…

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America losing relevance in the Middle East…

22 Sep

The United States is not a homogeneous country; it is only as smart as is its leadership and any given time. Under Barak Obama, at least while Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State, the US was totally ignorant about matters dealing with the Islamic world. Mrs. Clinton thought that she could charm her way, and President Obama felt that his formative years among Muslims would put him in good stead.
Both Obama and Mrs. Clinton were wrong! Rather than to study the Islamic World and recognize that it is a multi-faceted entity, they tried misused American ideology. They supported Arab Springs, the overthrow of Mubarak, and Mrs. Clinton suggested that Bashar Assad was a “true reformer.”
America with today’s leadership is not only not smart, it is a very stupid country when it comes to dealing with Muslims…Interestingly enough it is also quite impotent when it comes to dealing with Israel, the Muslim Middle East neighbors.
Unless there is a rude awakening by and in the United States, and a very new and more intelligent direction it will become more irrelevant with every day that goes by!

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President Obama’s Syria Posture, the Epitome of incompetence; and Betrayal of Allies!

1 Sep

President Obama Syria Posture, the Epitome of incompetence; and Betrayal of Allies!

After a convincing speech by Secretary of State Kerry on August 30, 2013; a good explanation why the US must take urgent action against Syria, the President of the United States, Barak Hussein Obama, on August 31, 2013, ‘a day that will live in infamy,’ destroyed United States credibility as a leader of the free world, as a Nation that can be trusted to maintain balance in today’s turmoil of a worlds.
President Obama proposed to the Nation that he will throw a stone at a hornet’s nest and stand by to see the results.
President Obama Syrian posture is tantamount to retreat (as Syrian papers reported,) and verging on treason by violating a trust to the US, and its allies, mostly Jordan and Israel in this case.

Much more to follow, also check: http://www.dangoor.wordpress.com