Tag Archives: Syria a Divine message?

Syria, is the conflict a divine message for the Middle East?

7 Dec

The Middle East (ME) a region full of misunderstandings-based conflicts; a hub in world instabilities. The United States misunderstanding of the region is of much like that of the British nation even when much of the area was under its control.
Most of ME conflicts had their roots in it oil richness, that reason is closely followed by religious.
The oil issue is easily understandable, oil means energy, and energy is what fuels the economies of civilization.
The religious issues have several different causes. The most recent and most visible to the international community is that of Islamic nations against Israel. The Islam conflict with Israel is quite young in historical terms, even though the issue between Jew and Muslims has its roots in the Quran, and is therefore as old as that book, or about 1400 years. The Quran consider Jews: “Of apes and swines, to be despised and rejected (5:60).” The book refers to Jews “as people of the book,” is suggests that Allah wished for them to be “his” people and that because they rejected him, they must be either converted, or otherwise destroyed. Present day extension of the conflict has two distinct phases. At the late nineteen hundreds, Jews started to move into Palestine, the Arabs in the country rejected that move thus started to conflict. Much of Palestinian Arab leadership even sided with Hitler; it so much hated the Jews.
The second, and present phase started in 1948 with the establishment of the State OF Israel.
The other major conflict, much larger in scope, and one that spans the globe is an internal conflict within Islam. Islam has two major segments, Sunni (80%) and Shiite (20%) there are also subsets of the two major unites, Alawit (Assad’s religious affiliation) is a sub-set of the Shiite part of Islam.
Briefly, the magnitude of the Arab Israeli conflict versus those within Islam is staggering. For example, Hafez al Assad (the father of today‚Äôs’ Syrian leader) was responsible for killing 60,000 Syrians; Bashar Assad already is responsible for well over 120,000 deaths of Syrians; in comparison, from 1989 to now, less than suicide bombers killed one thousand Israelis. These numbers are actually a case of apples and oranges since there are 7,000,000 inhabitants in Israel and there are one thousand as many Muslims in the Muslim countries that are in Israel’s neighborhood.
Let us look at the present Syrian conflict and its impact on the region. The conflict, which started nearly three years ago as a national, mostly secular conflict through a push by Syria’s intelligentsia, had a strong beginning with the element of surprise on its side. The rebels, however, in order to make their efforts a surprise, were not able to organize, or equip themselves very well since they counted on United States support to be consistent with US support of democratization in the region.
To the rebels’ surprise, under Hillary Clinton’s who considered Bashar Assad “a true reformer,” the US decided to stay on the sidelines.
Without US support for the rebels, the Syrians regime, with the help of Russia (state-of-the-art equipment and advisers,) and Iran (personnel, direct and with Hezbollah,) and equipment, was able to rebound, overcome the surprise, and delay what would have been the inevitable ouster of Assad. As the regime (Shiite based,) Syria’s Sunni brethren, mostly Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states started to help the rebels, but with their helps a large element of al Qaeda also entered the fray, and a real regional religious war emerged.
What will happen after the war ends? Who is going to win?
Let us start by saying that predicting the outcome of the war is not yet possible. So let us take a quick look at the two potential scenarios, and in a little more detail at the end results, which would likely be quite similar of, regardless who wins or looses.
If the regime wins, it would likely have to do so without Assad at the head since the international community is already on record as rejecting his legitimacy. Presiding over Syria under such circumstances would be an Iranian appointed puppet, while the military would be headed by, and include a large Hezbollah contingency. It would likely have a Supreme Leader who will likely be an Ayatollah. In this scenario, Russia will remain strong influence on the country’s future.
Should the rebels win, Syria would also become a highly religious entity but under Sunni leadership. Under such circumstances the Saudis will have a great deal to say about the country leadership, its military would have a large al Qaeda element.
Whatever the outcome, United States influence would diminish!
Effects on the region, on the Middle East. Since about four million Syrians would have left Syria by the time the conflict ends, and very few will return, demographics of the region will change. Lebanon: some a million and a half, to two million Syrians, mostly Sunnis will remain in Lebanon. With Hezbollah a strong element in Lebanon, and Shiite, new religious conflicts within Lebanon, a struggle for control will ensue.
Half a million or about that many refugees in Turkey may not have a great influence on the future of that country, but as the result of the conflict and fringe events, it is very likely the a sovereign Kurdistan will emerge.
Jordan: With well over a million refugees Jordan will suffer. Since there are already more foreigners (Palestinians) in Jordan than are Jordanians, adding numerous Syrians will very likely weaken the already vulnerable monarchy, a shakedown of national control would very possibly result.
In addition to a sovereign Kurdistan one can count on the Golan Heights remaining permanent part of Israel, and so will likely be the Baaka Valley.
Since the long suffering Kurds who were deprived of their own land for a very long time are likely to get their own sovereign nation, and Israel should have enhanced security on its northern border, while the situation in Jordan should help determine the fate of the Palestinians, as a nation, or as part of a new Jordan. Could helping historically oppressed people suggest that the Syrian conflict was just another case of divine intervention?

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